Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
